Abstract
Trends in breast cancer death by stage at diagnoses in 2000-2018.
Author
person
Adriana Matutino Kahn
Yale Cancer Center, New Haven, CT
info_outline
Adriana Matutino Kahn, Michal Marczyk, Andrea Silber, Mariya Rozenblit, Tara B. Sanft, Michael DiGiovanna, Sarah Schellhorn, Ian E. Krop, Maryam B. Lustberg, Eric P. Winer, Lajos Pusztai
Full text
Authors
person
Adriana Matutino Kahn
Yale Cancer Center, New Haven, CT
info_outline
Adriana Matutino Kahn, Michal Marczyk, Andrea Silber, Mariya Rozenblit, Tara B. Sanft, Michael DiGiovanna, Sarah Schellhorn, Ian E. Krop, Maryam B. Lustberg, Eric P. Winer, Lajos Pusztai
Organizations
Yale Cancer Center, New Haven, CT, Silesian University of Technology, Gliwice, Poland, Yale University, New Haven, CT, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, Yale Cancer Center, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT
Abstract Disclosures
Research Funding
No funding received
None.
Background:
Approximately 40-45,000, women die from breast cancer each year, most of which are due to metastatic recurrence of stage I-III cancers. Stage I and II cancers are considered highly curable, but they also include most patients. The goal of this analysis is to examine the contribution of stage I, II, III, and IV disease to annual breast cancer-specific death and assess time trends.
Methods:
Data from patients diagnosed with stage I-IV breast cancer between 1975-2018 (N = 1,545,502) were obtained from The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. After filtering for the female sex, one primary site only, surgery performed, known AJCC stage > 0, and survival data available we included N = 1,018,331 patients. We estimated the year of breast cancer-specific death (BCSD) by adding time to BCSD to a year of diagnosis for each patient. We summarized the proportion of BCSD by stage at diagnosis in each year between 2000 and 2017. All temporal trends were assessed by fitting the linear model with interactions between stage and year, then running the ANOVA to test model coefficient significance. For each year of diagnosis, Kaplan-Meier curves were fitted to patient data grouped by stage, and 5-year survival was estimated.
Results:
The study population included 24% ER-, 73% ER+ (the rest unknown) cancers; 35% HER2-, 6% HER2+ (the rest unknown); 24% were < 50 and 76% > 50 years of age; 60% received adjuvant chemotherapy. Over time, the frequency of stage I cancers increased from 49% in 2000 to 54% by 2017 (slope = 0.37 [95% CI: 0.32; 0.42]), and stage II and III decreased from 35.2% to 34.9% (slope = - 0.09 [-0.15; -0.04]) and from 14% to 10% (slope = -0.23 [-0.29; -0.18]), respectively. Five-year breast cancer-specific survivals remained stable for stage I cancers and increased significantly for stage II (slope = 0.002 [0.001;0.003]), stage III (slope = 0.006 [0.005;0.007]) and IV cancers (slope = 0.011 [0.010; 0.012]). The contribution of stage I cancers to annual breast cancer death increased and reached 23% in 2017, while death from stage III disease decreased to 30%. Since 2003, > 50% of breast cancer deaths are from stage I-II cancers.
Conclusions:
The prevalence of stage I breast cancers increased in the past 20 years, and despite excellent overall prognosis, stage I-II cancers account for over 60% of all BCSD. To substantially reduce breast cancer death, we need to better identify the minority of Stage I-II patients who remain at risk for recurrence and death.
Stage
Breast Cancer Specific Death by Stage at Diagnosis by Year [%]
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
I
16
17
18
18.42
19
18
20
19
20
21
20
20
22
21
22
23
23
23
II
31
32
31
34.18
35
35
36
36
38
36
38
38
38
38
37
38
39
39
III
36
35
38
36.26
36
36
35
34
33
33
33
32
32
31
31
29
29
30
IV
17
15
13
11.14
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
10
9
9
9
9
8
7
6 organizations
Organization
New Haven, CTOrganization
Silesian University of TechnologyOrganization
Gliwice, PolandOrganization
Yale UniversityOrganization
Yale School of Medicine